Ox-Cam arc housing held back by road and rail scheme delays

The government risks missing a “significant growth opportunity” by failing to fully commit to the proposed Oxford-Cambridge growth arc, according to the government’s own infrastructure advisor.

The National Infrastructure Commission’s annual progress review said that achieving the economic potential in the growth “arc” between Oxford and Cambridge would require a doubling in the rate of housebuilding in the area above historic levels, but that this was being held back by a lack of certainty around key infrastructure investments.

The government initially targeted the building of one million homes in the Oxford Cambridge growth arc, which runs through Milton Keynes, following work undertaken by the Commission (NIC), but dropped one million homes as a formal target in 2021.

The NIC said the success of the scheme is dependent upon the delivery of both the £5bn East West Rail project between Oxford and Cambridge, and the Oxford-Cambridge Expressway road. The East West Rail project has been given the go-ahead but its delivery timeframe is uncertain, while the expressway road scheme was cancelled in 2021 amid local opposition.

In addition, a draft spatial framework covering the arc area which was due to be published last autumn has still not emerged.

The NIC said this week: “Rates of house building will need to double if the region is to reach its economic potential, and that this should be delivered through new housing settlements. These housing settlements are being held back by a lack of infrastructure.”

It concluded: “Although some progress has been made on East West rail, the Oxford-Cambridge Expressway has been cancelled and there has been no further progress on publishing the spatial framework.

“The region presents a significant growth opportunity for the UK but this will be missed if long term certainty is not provided.”

In February last year local authorities in the area reported that government officials had told them that housing secretary Michael Gove had effectively dropped the arc as a central government project, and “does not wish to see the Ox Cam arc as a project driven by central government.”

Since plans for the arc were first formulated, a separate housing deal designed to drive higher delivery of housing numbers in Oxfordshire has also fallen apart amid disagreement between constituent local authorities, while many of the local authorities within the arc area are now opposed to greater levels of housing development.