More than five million homes need to be built by 2040 to meet demand, report says

At least 5.4 million homes need to be built across England by 2040 “to meet burgeoning demand”, according to new data analysis by Marrons.

Across Greater London’s 32 boroughs and the City of London, an additional 1.8 million new homes will need to be built to meet the housing needs of the capital’s population in 2040.

The design, planning and development consultancy has analysed ONS census data from 2021, population projections and data from local authority housing registers, and affordable housing stock records to predict the number of new homes the country will need by 2040.

In 2023, Lambeth had 35,924 applicants on its social housing register, the highest number out of all the Greater London boroughs.

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Tower Hamlets will need to build more than 102,500 new homes to meet the needs of its 2040 population.

The report also projects that Tower Hamlets will experience the greatest need for later living accommodation within Greater London, with its 66+ demographic expected to soar by 155% to 42,830.

The South-east of England is projected to require more than 950,000 homes by 2040 to meet the government’s minimum housing need.

While the North-east’s population is projected to grow by 5%, the slowest growth rate out of all the English regions, at least 112,388 new properties will need to be built.

Birmingham needs to build more than 127,600 new homes, the highest of any English local authority, to meet the housing needs of the city’s projected population aged 16 and above by 2040.

The second largest city is also set to lose the highest number of properties through Right to Buy out of all the local authorities in the West Midlands.

By 2040, it is projected that over 19,000 properties in Birmingham will be lost due to Right to Buy (RTB), demolitions, and a lack of new social homes.

Meanwhile, the local authority’s social housing register increased by 242% between 2018 and 2022.

In February, Birmingham City Council revealed that it was considering closing its social housing waiting list. At the time, the register had a backlog of 11,000 unassessed housing applications.

Last month, the council announced that it would keep the list open, which now has almost 23,500 live applications.

Dan Usher, economics director at Marrons said: “We are nowhere near meeting the government’s minimum housing need of 300,000 properties a year – the average is 215,000 over the past decade – so parliament’s response to its own target is grossly inadequate. However, the obsession with the number is meaningless if hitting targets is prioritised over and above the needs of local populations.

“A national housing policy – supported by a proper approach to regeneration, systematic review of green belt and an in-depth understanding of the socio-economic needs of a location – will highlight areas of opportunity and meaningful change. Without this, we will see no movement in the market or developments that do not serve the population’s needs, placing the housing crisis in gridlock.”